The main goal of our proposal is to better understand the dynamics of large volcano-magmatic systems based on an approach combining observations and physical modeling. For this purpose, we will study the Klyuchevskoy Group of Volcanoes (KVG) in Kamchatka that is the largest and the most active cluster of subduction volcanoes in the World and where numerous geological and geophysical observations are available via a collaboration that we have recently established with the academic research institutions in Russia.
The proposal team regroups seismologists and specialists on physical modeling of volcanic systems from the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and from the Earth Observatory of Singapore, the leading Solid Earth research institutions in their countries with a particular mission in understanding the volcanic hazard. The team members have been working together for several years and developed novel methods for the analysis of geophysical observations on volcanoes and for their interpretation based on physical modeling.
We will systematically analyze more than 15 years long KVG continuous seismic dataset with the novel methods to obtain information about variations of different types of sources emitting seismic waves and consequently about migrations of gases and volcanic fluids. These results will then be combined with information obtained from other geophysical and geological studies to build a physical model of the volcano- magmatic system below the KVG and to simulate possible scenarios of its evolution. In particular, we will investigate a possibility of the system to evolve toward a very large eruption that would liberate a significant portion of the magmatic material stored at depth. This study will provide key elements for understanding the dynamics of large magmatic systems and the mechanisms that may lead to preparation of very large eruptions and is expected to have implications for our capacity to better anticipate these largest eruptions.