The predictability of advection-dominated flux-transport solar dynamo model | INSTITUT DE PHYSIQUE DU GLOBE DE PARIS


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  The predictability of advection-dominated flux-transport solar dynamo model

Type de publication:

Journal Article


Astrophys. J., Volume 781 (2014)


Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies, we quantify the predictability window of a representative, advection-dominated, flux-transport dynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters through a perturbation analysis. We measure the rate associated with the exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory, which yields a characteristic timescale known as the e-folding time tau(e). The e-folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the alpha-effect, and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional circulation. Comparing the e-folding time with the solar cycle periodicity, we obtain an average estimate for iota(e) equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations. From a practical point of view, the perturbations analyzed in this work can be interpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical model itself. After reviewing these, we discuss their implications for solar cycle prediction.