Forecast for the evolution of the geomagnetic field intensity

at the surface of the Earth in the next century.

The South Atlantic anomaly (in blue) will enlarge, deepen

and drift westward in the future.

More on this:


Finlay, C., Aubert, J. and Gillet, N.: Gyre-driven decay of Earth’s magnetic dipole, Nature Communications 7, 10422, 2016, doi: 10.1038/ncomms10422.

Aubert, J.: Geomagnetic forecasts driven by thermal wind dynamics in Earth’s core, Geophys. J. Int. 203, 1738-1751, 2015, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv394

Fournier, A., Aubert, J. and Thébault, E.: A candidate secular variation model for IGRF-12 based on Swarm data and inverse geodynamo modelling, Earth, Planets, Space 67, 81, 2015, doi:  10.1186/s40623-015-0245-8

Thébault, E., and al.: International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the 12th generation. Earth, Planets, Space 67, 79, 2015, doi: 10.1186/s40623-015-0228-9

Historical evolution of Earth’s magnetic dipole intensity, together

with an ensemble forecast for the coming century. The red line

is the ensemble average, and the pink shaded zone is the

ensemble spread or forecast uncertainty.