The IRIVOLC project receives France 2030 support to strengthen volcanic crisis preparedness in the Caribbean

Anticipating high-impact volcanic eruptions

The active volcanoes of the Lesser Antilles — notably La Soufrière of Guadeloupe and Mount Pelée in Martinique — rank among the most hazardous volcanoes in Europe due to their volcanic activity, the high population density and exposed systemic assets in surrounding areas.

IRIVOLC focuses on high-impact, low-probability (HILP) eruption scenarios. While such events are unlikely, their consequences could be severe for local populations and infrastructure. A major objective of the project is therefore to build a shared, science-based understanding of the potential impacts of a large eruption, which is essential for effective crisis preparedness and risk management.

Advanced simulations of volcanic processes and their impacts

To address these challenges, the project will develop high-resolution numerical and probabilistic models capable of simulating hazardous volcanic processes and their potential impacts across affected territories.

These simulations will allow researchers to:

• model major explosive eruption scenarios for La Soufrière of Guadeloupe and Mount Pelée in Martinique;
• quantify societal impacts across space and time;
• explore evacuation strategies and crisis response scenarios using agent-based models that incorporate human behaviour and mobility and use artificial intelligence.

By integrating physical volcanic processes with societal dynamics, the project aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of how volcanic crises unfold and affect communities.

Developing decision-support tools for crisis management

A central objective of IRIVOLC is the development of probabilistic decision-support tools for authorities responsible for risk management.

The project will produce dynamic volcanic risk maps, combining deterministic and probabilistic approaches in order to explicitly account for scientific uncertainties. These tools will help support crisis response strategies based on a dual approach: population evacuation in high-risk areas and long-term adaptation to volcanic risk in areas that are less impacted and will not be evacuated.

An interdisciplinary research consortium

IRIVOLC is coordinated by Jean-Christophe Komorowski (IPGP) and brings together an interdisciplinary consortium of researchers working in volcanology, numerical modelling, geography, social sciences and political science.

The consortium includes:

• Institut de physique du globe de Paris (IPGP),
• Université Clermont Auvergne (Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans),
• Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier 3 (LAGAM)
• Université des Antilles, Pôle Martinique (PHEEAC, UMR 8053)
• CNRS (IDEES UMR 6266),
• French geological survey (BRGM).

The project will also rely on the volcanological and seismological observatories of IPGP in Guadeloupe and Martinique, as well as several national research infrastructures dedicated to volcanic monitoring and natural hazard research (SNOV CNRS-INSU, Epos-France, Data-Terra).

Strengthening resilience to natural hazards

By developing new simulation methods and operational tools for decision-makers, IRIVOLC aims to strengthen the preparedness and resilience of volcanic territories in the face of extreme events.

More broadly, the project contributes to improving our understanding of volcanic risks and supports international efforts to reduce disaster risk, in line with the objectives of the United Nations’s Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction