Identification of major earthquake precursors offshore Martinique, Lesser Antilles

Understanding processes which may be at the origin of major earthquakes in subduction zones is very challenging, especially in the case of slow converging area as the Lesser Antilles subduction. Our study shows that an increase of the seismicity rate and the cumulative seismic moment is recorded since the last two decades offshore Martinique island, and particularly in the 1839 historical major earthquake rupture area. This increase of the seismicity rate, associated with a high extensive intermediate-depth activity since the Mw 7.4 2007 Martinique earthquake; a compressive seismic cluster located on the seismogenic zone of the subduction; a downward migration of the seismicity along the plate interface; and the increase of the magnitudes recorded; may indicate that the 1839 rupture area is currently unlocking. All these observations have been previously identified in other subduction zones and were interpreted to be long- or intermediate-term precursors announcing a major earthquake.

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