Extreme event attribution: how and why?
École Normale Supérieure
Extreme events are an expression of natural climate variability. Since anthropogenic emissions affect global climate, it is natural to wonder whether recent observed extreme events are a manifestation of anthropogenic climate change. This seminar will be in two parts. First, I will present the existing scientific tools to study the influence of anthropogenic climate change on observed extreme events. I will focus on methods disentangling the influence of climate change on the dynamics leading to European heatwaves. Second, I will assess whether and how this scientific information — and more generally, the science of extreme event attribution (EEA) — could be useful for society.