Extreme event attribution: how and why?

Extreme events are an expression of natural climate variability. Since anthropogenic emissions affect global climate, it is natural to wonder whether recent observed extreme events are a manifestation of anthropogenic climate change. This seminar will be in two parts. First, I will present the existing scientific tools to study the influence of anthropogenic climate change on observed extreme events. I will focus on methods disentangling the influence of climate change on the dynamics leading to European heatwaves. Second, I will assess whether and how this scientific information — and more generally, the science of extreme event attribution (EEA) — could be useful for society.