Understanding volcanic CO2 and SO2 fluxes for better eruption precursors
IPGP - Îlot Cuvier
Séminaires thème Risques naturels
Natural Hazard Coffee // Manuel Queißer Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86223514998 ID: 862 2351 4998 Abstract: Eight hundred million people live at direct danger from active volcanoes, and this number is growing as the world population rises. Volcanoes furthermore present a significant risk to aviation, such that the effects of volcanism can be experienced rather further afield, following on from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland. The eruptions of Stromboli volcano (Italy) in 2019, which had fatal consequences, demonstrated that our understanding of magmatic processes is still far from sufficient to consistently predict volcanic activity, even on this target, which is widely considered to be one of the best understood and monitored volcano on the planet. To increase our confidence in forecasted magnitudes and timings of volcanic eruptions, we need better definitions of precursory signatures, which in turn rely on higher quality monitoring data and more enlightened interpretations. Accurate measurement and interpretation of volcanic CO2 fluxes are absolutely crucial to constraining magmatic dynamics, but very difficult to achieve on the basis of current technology, demanding new advances in measurement techniques. To serve this need, a novel remote sensing platform for remotely and accurately constraining both SO2 and CO2 fluxes, in a spatially integrated manner and with a high acquisition frequency, is proposed. The acquired flux time series will be interpreted via corroboration with numerical modelling aided by laboratory analogue models of underground degassing processes, to gain unprecedented insights into how subterranean behaviour drives activity at the surface. This will help to improve constraints on eruption precursors, therefore improving the capacity to forecast eruptions. The developed technology will be easy to use, and relatively low cost, thus suitable for widespread dissemination to volcano observatories for long-term operational deployment.